The World's Greatest Blog

The Rugby World Cup Final for 2007 takes place this Saturday, 20 October, at 21:00 CET (8pm UK time, or 5am Eastern Australian Time) between England and South Africa. It is time for the final match preview of RWC 2007.

As with the past two knockout round matches, I am going to continue my modus operandi of predicting English defeat and at the same time hoping for a different result! This tactic has paid dividends so far, and is the only logical thing to do for the final too.

Forward Battle

In the forwards, England have one of their few real advantages in this match-up. I’d expect the English pack to dominate the South Africans at the scrummage, and to steal more South African line-out ball than the other way around.

England have also used the counter-ruck to great effect in more recent RWC matches, so I’d expect their forwards to win a few turnovers at the breakdown too, as well as preventing quick ball at South African rucks.

So far, England have been very good at slowing down recycling, yet staying within the rules, as they’ve conceded relatively few penalties for this. Yes, they’ll be slow to roll away, but are responsive to refereeing commands, and generally well disciplined: they manage referees particularly well.

The South African pack are not to be taken too lightly, however, and will win their fair share of line-out ball, as well as securing good ball for their backs at the breakdown. They also have great loose forwards in Schalk Burger and Juan Smith, who can mix it with the best of them, and will throw their bodies into the firing line to win turnover ball for the Springboks.

Key Players

• Brian Habana – South Africa – Habana is lightening quick, can sidestep masterfully and has run in more tries in this year’s Rugby World Cup than any other player. Ever. This man is the complete winger, and England will have their work cut out if he gets the ball with more than an inch of space.
• Jonny Wilkinson – England – Wilkinson has been here before, and got the t-shirt. He kicked the winner in 2003, and has arguably been the primary factor in England’s past two victories this year. A great kicker off both feet, Wilkinson showed last week just why he is such a champion: he thrives on pressure. The higher the stakes, the better Jonny plays – having had the poorest RWC kicking by his own high standards, and having kicked poorly for the first forty minutes of England’s semi-final against France, he thought nothing of taking a touchline penalty for goal to take the lead with six minutes remaining, and cooly slotting it between the posts. In addition, he also scored possibly the best dropped goal of the tournament so far to cement the victory. His kicking form will be crucial for England in the Final.
• Percy Montgomery – South Africa – Montgomery, like Wilkinson of England, is South Africa’s goal kicker. He is also the side’s most experienced player, with over 90 caps to his name. Montgomery is extremely good with ball in hand, playing from full-back; makes excellent decisions; and will join the line to great effect. He’s not the quickest full-back you’ll ever see, but at 33, he will rarely make a mistake. He hardly misses a kick at goal either.
• Jason Robinson – England – at 33, age is seemingly just a number for Jason Robinson. And despite his well documented, and very recent, troubles with injury, you simply cannot repress the speedy rugby league convert. Robinson scored England’s opening try in RWC Final 2003 – England fans will be hoping for a repeat of that effort on Saturday. He is still a key danger man for England, as he is extremely quick, possesses explosive acceleration and the most incredible ability to switch direction at full speed. His low centre of gravity (a pseudonym for “being a bit short”) also allows him to evade tackles all the more – as France found to their cost last week.

Predictions

While England’s pack have the ability and power, if not the youth, to more than hold their own in this match, their backs are nowhere near the quality of their South African counterparts.

The South African back-line is extremely solid, possesses real pace on each wing, and is backed up by one of the most experienced and dependable goal-kicking full-backs in the world. In short, if they get the ball to their backs, the Springboks will work England’s defense to the hilt.

England’s back-line, in particular their centres Mike Catt and Matthew Tate, as well as Paul Sackey on the right wing, struggle defensively. If they are to get anything from this match, England must prevent the ball from leaving the South African forwards as far as possible and, when it does, make it as slow as they can to allow the defense maximum chance to set themselves, when the South Africans have the ball, there must be few, if any, missed tackles, or its bye-bye birdy and watch Brian Habana steam away to the try-line.

England must counter-ruck and win much turnover ball, which they must convert into points at every opportunity. Points will be hard to come by for England, as the Springboks are excellent defensivly too, though are by now means impossible to break down. England are most likely to score a try by working through phases, and either a forward pushing over the line after a number of phases, or a quickly worked back-line move from a good forward platform. However, most of their points should come, again, from the boot of Wilkinson; from hard won penalties or well worked drop goal attempts.

The South Africans, on the other hand, will look to capitalise on their open play advantages, and should try to move the ball to their wings whenever possible. They will be confident their backs can overpower those of England, as they did in the Pool match which they won 36-0.

I’d expect no repeat of that scorline. England will need all of their grit, determination and discipline – they need to avoid needless penalties, prevent the South Africans getting quick ball to their backs and work through multiple phases with the ball in hand without error. We saw in the Argentina – South Africa Semi-Final just how expensive errors can be against the Springboks, when Argentina gifted them two tries.

Barring all English errors, and with a near perfect kicking game from Wilkinson, I could see this being a much closer affair than 36-0. However, South Africa are far too strong in the backs not to score at least one try – providing they do not choke at the big occasion – something they have shown no sign of doing, though arguably they have not been really tested since the start of this World Cup.

That is England’s one glimmer of hope, that South Africa have not yet been pushed to the wire, and that they won’t react properly when they are in the biggest possible occasion. A yellow card would even things up markedly, and there could well be one given the Semi-Final last week, and South Africa’s likely annoyance at being dominated in the scrum.

All this aside, my prediction is quite straightforward: a tight affair which takes place mostly in the forwards, working to England’s game-plan, but with some exciting back play from the Springboks which will result in a couple of speedy tries from their wings. Wilkinson will keep the white shirted men in the game with his kicking prowess. South Africa to win by under seven points.

Links:

• Rugby Books
  
• Rugby Wit
• 101 Rugby Training Drills
• The Official England Rugby Miscellany
• The Wales Rugby Miscellany
• Team England Rugby: Rugby World Cup 2007